Ge Long Hui A P P·2025-12-22 01:24Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu predicts Tesla's Q4 2025 delivery volume to be approximately 405,000 units, representing a year-over-year decline of 14% and a quarter-over-quarter decline of 19%, which is below market consensus and the bank's previous forecast [1] Delivery Volume Outlook - The shortfall in delivery volume is primarily concentrated in Tesla's core Western markets, with expected declines of 34% in Europe and 33% in North America; the Chinese market is anticipated to see a decline of about 10% [1] Robotaxi Development - Despite short-term pressures on delivery volume and gross margins, the development of the Robotaxi is considered a significant support for Tesla's valuation; Elon Musk previously indicated plans to deploy around 1,000 autonomous taxis in the San Francisco Bay Area and over 500 in Austin, though Deutsche Bank's tracking suggests these targets are unlikely to be met in the short term [1] Internal Testing and Future Prospects - Tesla's recent decision to remove safety drivers in Austin for internal validation testing is viewed as a sign that broader deployment may be forthcoming [1] Valuation Adjustment - Based on the potential valuation uplift from the Robotaxi and humanoid robot plans, Deutsche Bank has raised Tesla's buy rating target price by $30 to $500, although this increase is partially offset by the downward adjustment in delivery volume for the core automotive business [1]