重视煤价合理才是常态，稳煤价逻辑依旧

Core Viewpoint - The coal market is experiencing a slight decline in prices, with expectations for gradual recovery to a reasonable price level of 750 RMB/ton, influenced by supply constraints and increased demand due to seasonal factors [1][2]. Group 1: Coal Price Trends - As of December 19, the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price is 703 RMB/ton, down 50 RMB/ton from the previous period, while the Guangzhou port price is 780 RMB/ton, having reached the estimated target price range of 800-860 RMB/ton [1][2]. - The current price has fallen below the coal-electricity profit-sharing level of 750 RMB/ton, indicating potential for price recovery [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The decline in coal prices is attributed to ongoing supply tightening due to regulatory actions against overproduction and safety inspections, alongside rising demand as the energy consumption season begins [2]. - The demand surge is driven by early heating needs in northern regions due to cold weather and increased industrial production as the year-end approaches [2]. Group 3: Policy Impact - The release of the "Key Areas for Clean and Efficient Utilization of Coal" policy emphasizes the shift towards higher value coal products and indicates that coal investment logic is increasingly driven by policy rather than just fundamental factors [3]. Group 4: Investment Logic - The price recovery process for thermal coal is expected to follow four stages, including the restoration of long-term contracts and reaching the profit-sharing level for coal and power companies [4]. - The target price for coking coal is influenced by its price ratio to thermal coal, with specific target prices set based on this relationship [4]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The coal sector presents dual investment logic: cyclical elasticity due to low historical prices and stable dividends from companies maintaining high dividend payouts [5]. - Key stocks to consider include those benefiting from cyclical recovery (e.g., Jinko Coal, Yanzhou Coal) and those with strong dividend potential (e.g., China Shenhua, Zhongmei Energy) [5].