欧盟碳关税草案扩围，180种下游产品纳入CBAM

Group 1 - The European Commission released a new draft of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on December 17, which will include 180 types of steel and aluminum-intensive downstream products starting in 2028 to prevent foreign manufacturers from evading carbon taxes through product assembly exports [1][7] - The draft expands the coverage of CBAM to include machinery, electrical appliances, and specialized industrial equipment, expected to affect 7,000 new importers, with 94% being industrial supply chain products and an average steel and aluminum content of 79% [7][8] - Future expansions of the CBAM may include sectors such as cement, fertilizers, and hydrogen [7] Group 2 - Emission indicators will include both default and actual values, with default emission values set to increase, particularly affecting major exporting markets like Indonesia, India, and China [7][8] - By 2026, a 10% surcharge will be added to default values, increasing to 20% in 2027 and 30% in 2028, while fertilizer importers will face a 1% annual surcharge [7][8] Group 3 - Significant cost impacts are anticipated, particularly for imports from Indonesia, China, and India, with additional costs for hot-rolled steel from China projected to be €189 per ton in 2026 and increasing to €302 per ton by 2028 [8] - The draft clarifies the operation of CBAM, but companies face uncertainties as emission values will be further reviewed in 2026 and 2027, and details regarding foreign carbon price deductions remain undecided, complicating cost planning [2][8]