澳洲联储鹰派转向支撑澳元

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) has shown a moderate upward trend against the US dollar (USD), with a current exchange rate of 0.6617, driven by differences in monetary policy, economic data divergence, and global risk sentiment [1] Monetary Policy - The interest rate differential expectations have become the core driver of the exchange rate. The Federal Reserve restarted its rate-cutting cycle in September 2025, implementing three cuts within three months, with the current policy rate at 3.5%-3.75%. Despite hawkish signals from Fed officials in December, market expectations indicate at least two additional rate cuts in 2026, with the terminal rate expected to fall to 3.00%-3.25% [2] - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has maintained a hawkish stance, pausing adjustments since lowering the cash rate to 3.60% in August 2025. The RBA's December statement emphasized the possibility of rate hikes to address inflation pressures, with the October CPI rising to 3.8% [2] Economic Data - Economic data divergence has intensified short-term exchange rate volatility. Australia's December manufacturing PMI rose to 52.2, indicating expansion, while the services PMI fell to 51.0, dragging the composite PMI to a seven-month low. Consumer confidence dropped significantly by 9% to 94.5, indicating a pessimistic outlook [3] - The US economy also showed mixed signals, with November non-farm payrolls slightly exceeding expectations but the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, the highest since 2021. Retail sales stagnated, highlighting a slowdown in consumer spending [3] Technical Analysis - The AUD/USD remains in an upward channel, with a neutral short-term momentum. Key support is at 0.6620, with potential declines to 0.6414. Resistance levels are at 0.6685 and the previous high of 0.6707, with a breakthrough potentially targeting the 0.6740 range. Institutions have differing views, with some predicting a rise to 0.69 in the next three months due to ongoing policy differences [3] Market Outlook - Short-term focus should be on the upcoming Australian Q4 CPI data, Fed officials' speeches, and commodity price fluctuations. In the medium to long term, the leadership change at the Fed in May 2026, the effectiveness of Australia's inflation control, and economic recovery resilience will be key variables determining the exchange rate direction [4]