中金：全球化能力或成电商平台发展重要分水岭 看好中国电商出海份额获取

Core Viewpoint - The ability to globalize may become a significant dividing line for the development of e-commerce platforms in the medium to long term, as major overseas platforms demonstrate resilience and risk management capabilities through various operational strategies [1][2] Group 1: Resilience of Overseas E-commerce Platforms - Despite external disturbances, overseas e-commerce platforms have maintained resilience, with a projected GMV growth of 12% for overseas e-commerce in 2025, and a 25% growth for the four major Chinese overseas e-commerce platforms [1] - The adjustment of tariffs and small package tax exemption policies has become a major issue affecting overseas e-commerce, with increasing global regulatory scrutiny [1] Group 2: Localization and Diversification Strategies - Major overseas platforms are taking steps to diversify operational regions, increase overseas warehouse fulfillment methods, improve operational strategies, and promote semi-managed models, showcasing stronger operational resilience and risk management capabilities [2] - Enhanced localization and diversified layouts are expected to mitigate the impact of extreme situations on platform operations, leading to stable revenue and profit growth [2] Group 3: Revenue and Profit Outlook for 2026 - In 2026, major overseas e-commerce platforms may face revenue pressure due to adjustments in European small package policies and significant exposure in European operations, but profitability remains likely due to improvements in customer order value and repurchase frequency, as well as scale expansion driving efficiency [3]