多空决战前夜？政策分化油价暴击加元破局信号浮现！

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CAD exchange rate is experiencing fluctuations due to diverging monetary policies between the US and Canada, alongside low oil prices, mixed economic data, and geopolitical risks, leading to an unclear short-term direction [1][2]. Monetary Policy Divergence - The Bank of Canada maintained its interest rate at 2.25% on December 10, signaling a halt in rate cuts after four reductions this year, with a neutral to hawkish stance supported by a 2.6% annualized GDP growth in Q3 and a drop in unemployment to 6.5% with 53,000 new jobs added in November [1]. - In contrast, the Federal Reserve lowered its rate to 3.6% on December 11, marking its third cut of the year, with a dovish outlook from Chairman Powell and rising risks in the US labor market, leading to market expectations of further easing by 2026 [1]. Economic Data Disparity - US economic indicators show a mixed picture, with existing home sales rising by 0.5% in November, but consumer confidence slightly declining, and inflation expectations increasing to 4.2% [2]. - Canadian economic data is less supportive for the CAD, with retail sales falling by 0.2% in October and core retail sales down by 0.6%, although the CPI rose by 2.2% year-on-year in November, providing some support for the central bank's policy [2]. Commodity Influence on CAD - The CAD is negatively impacted by declining oil prices, which have dropped by 15.2% in 2025, affecting Canadian crude export revenues and consequently pressuring the CAD against the USD [2]. - Geopolitical factors, including US sanctions on Venezuela and Russia, have heightened supply concerns, increasing demand for the USD as a safe haven and further suppressing the CAD [2]. Technical Analysis - The USD/CAD pair is currently in a bearish trend, with the price consistently closing below key moving averages and facing resistance above 1.3800, indicating potential for further declines [2]. - Technical indicators such as MACD and RSI suggest continued bearish momentum, with the possibility of further downside movement [2]. Short-term and Long-term Outlook - Short-term volatility is expected to remain within the range of 1.3740 to 1.3830, with support at 1.3720-1.3680 and resistance at 1.3830 and 1.3890 [3]. - Future movements will depend on the sustainability of policy divergence, oil price recovery, and the economic progress in Canada, with global uncertainties likely to exacerbate volatility [3].