长江有色：印尼政策重塑全球镍业版图多头狂欢 22日镍价或上涨

Core Viewpoint - The nickel market is experiencing a significant rebound driven by Indonesia's policy adjustments and macroeconomic changes, leading to a complex interplay between supply constraints and high inventory levels [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The London nickel futures market saw a rise of 1.85%, closing at $14,900 per ton, with a trading volume of 12,561 contracts [1]. - In the domestic market, the Shanghai nickel futures also experienced a notable increase, with the main contract closing at 117,240 yuan per ton, up 1.09% [1]. - The Shanghai nickel futures opened higher, with the main contract starting at 116,600 yuan per ton, and later rising to 118,980 yuan per ton, an increase of 3,000 yuan [2]. Group 2: Policy Impact - Indonesia plans to significantly reduce its nickel ore production target by 34% by 2026, which is expected to have a profound impact on the market dynamics and supply levels [2]. - The macroeconomic environment is showing signs of easing monetary policy, particularly with increased expectations for interest rate cuts from major central banks, which is supporting a weaker dollar and improving global liquidity [2]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite the positive price movements, the global visible inventory remains at historically high levels, which could suppress rapid price increases [2][3]. - There is a divergence in downstream demand, with the new energy sector, particularly high-nickel ternary batteries, showing resilient growth, while traditional consumption sectors like stainless steel are under pressure due to seasonal downturns and weak terminal demand [2][3]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - The recent policy changes in Indonesia are reshaping the global nickel supply chain, enhancing the bargaining power of upstream resources while forcing downstream sectors to undergo profit redistribution and restructuring [3]. - The nickel price outlook suggests a strong but volatile market, with short-term fluctuations expected due to the ongoing battle between supply expectations and high inventory realities [3].