最准分析师最新警告：市场已提前透支2026年的好日子

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the market has preemptively priced in a favorable economic environment expected in 2026, characterized by low inflation, a robust economy, and loose policies [1] - Michael Hartnett, a prominent analyst, suggests that the current market conditions reflect an anticipation of a return to easy monetary policies and lower costs, indicating that money is flowing back into the market [1] - The report highlights significant inflows into equities, with $98.2 billion entering the stock market in one week, including $77.9 billion into U.S. stocks, marking the second-highest historical inflow [1] Group 2 - Hartnett's investment strategy focuses on low inflation rather than high growth, favoring zero-interest bonds, mid-cap stocks, emerging market equities, and commodities [1] - The Bull-Bear Indicator has reached 8.5, signaling an overheated market, which historically suggests a potential pullback in global stock markets by 2-3% on average, with extreme cases leading to a 4-9% decline over 1-3 months [1] - The real risk identified is that the market has already over-leveraged the positive outlook for 2026, rather than reacting to negative news [2]