欧洲乙烯行业2026年难有改善

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the European ethylene industry is unlikely to see significant structural improvement in its fundamentals by 2026, with a persistent low demand scenario expected to continue [1] - Market participants anticipate a notable decline in ethylene demand in 2025 compared to 2024, with further weakness expected in 2026 [1] - Ethylene producers in Europe expect limited or zero growth in production for the coming year, while downstream buyers indicate no substantial changes in demand for ethylene derivatives [1] Group 2 - The supply side remains loose, exacerbating market pressures, with five cracking units already shut down and two idled in 2025, alongside ongoing industry consolidation [1] - Despite the consolidation efforts, the supply of ethylene in Europe remains stable, with no shortages observed, indicating that the fundamental supply conditions have not changed [1] - The spot price of ethylene in Northwest Europe has been on a downward trend, dropping from €795.50 per ton at the beginning of 2025 to €507.50 per ton by December 10, 2025, reflecting the dual weakness in supply and demand [2] - Producers and downstream users are anticipating a larger-scale capacity exit from the industry, with expectations that maintenance in the first half of 2026 may provide short-term relief but structural improvements will require further capacity closures, particularly in low-efficiency ethylene derivative segments [2]