国际能源署发布《可再生能源2025》报告

Group 1 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) released its annual flagship report "Renewable Energy 2025," assessing the global energy transition, indicating strong growth in renewable energy despite policy adjustments and market fluctuations [1] - By 2024, renewable energy generation is expected to account for 32% of total global electricity generation, increasing to 43% by 2030, with variable renewable energy's share rising from 15% in 2024 to 28% in 2030 [1] - Global renewable energy capacity additions are projected to reach 683 GW in 2024, climbing to nearly 890 GW by 2030, with an estimated 4600 GW added from 2025 to 2030, doubling the previous five-year period [1] Group 2 - Solar photovoltaic and wind power are expected to contribute 96% of global renewable energy capacity additions over the next six years, with distributed solar showing strong performance [1] - Onshore wind capacity additions are projected to reach 732 GW from 2025 to 2030, a 45% increase compared to the previous period, while offshore wind forecasts have been downgraded [1] - Hydropower growth is expected to slightly exceed the previous period, with over 154 GW of new capacity anticipated from 2025 to 2030 [1] Group 3 - The report identifies key drivers for large-scale renewable energy growth, with auction and bidding mechanisms expected to contribute 57% of the incremental growth, making them the primary policy tool [2] - Corporate Power Purchase Agreements (CPPAs) are projected to account for 16%, while fixed feed-in tariffs and premiums will contribute 9%, highlighting the role of competitive procurement and market-based contracts in driving deployment [2] - Despite strong growth trajectories, there remains a gap between current national plans and commitments to achieve the 2030 target of over 11,000 GW of renewable energy capacity, necessitating stronger actions in policy certainty, grid investment, supply chain resilience, and financing channels [2]