陶冬：日本加息不会触发东南亚危机

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the contrasting economic conditions in the US and Japan, with the US showing signs of weakening data and Japan raising interest rates, impacting risk assets globally [1][3] - The US inflation data for November shows a core CPI increase of 2.6%, the lowest since 2021, but the quality of the data is questioned due to incomplete statistics caused by government shutdowns [1][2] - The US labor market is showing signs of weakness, with November adding 6,900 jobs primarily in AI infrastructure, education, and healthcare, while the unemployment rate rises to 4.6% [2] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates to 0.75%, the highest level since 1995, indicating potential for further increases, but the market had already priced in this move [3] - The rise in Japanese bond yields above 2% raises concerns about potential global financial instability, although the current economic environment differs significantly from the 1997 Asian financial crisis [3][4] - The article suggests that the likelihood of a similar crisis occurring today is low due to improved structural conditions in Southeast Asia, including flexible exchange rate mechanisms and better foreign debt management [5]