聚丙烯：2025年或弱势收尾 2026年关注阶段性的供需切换机遇

Core Viewpoint - The domestic polypropylene market in China continues to experience a downward trend in prices due to supply and demand pressures, with prices dropping to 6150 RMB/ton as of December 19, a decrease of 210 RMB/ton or 3.3% from the beginning of the month [2][10]. Supply Side Analysis - There is no new production capacity added in December, but the market shows a "sufficient total supply with localized tightness" characteristic. Some production units are unstable, and logistics disruptions in the northwest have led to structural tightness in certain areas. However, overall operating rates of existing facilities remain high, indicating a stable supply from major producers [3][11]. - The demand side is exacerbating the weak market atmosphere. Although there is stable rigid demand from downstream, a "fear of falling prices" sentiment dominates trading, leading to cautious purchasing strategies among intermediaries and downstream factories [3][11]. Price Dynamics - The combination of weak oil prices, insufficient cost support, and a lack of favorable macroeconomic policies has resulted in multiple negative factors affecting the polypropylene market. As a result, there is a lack of upward momentum for prices, which are expected to continue seeking a bottom in a weak range [3][11]. Future Outlook for 2026 - The core driving logic for the domestic polypropylene market in 2026 is expected to remain anchored in supply and demand fundamentals, with a likely continuation of a "supply increase exceeding demand increase" scenario, putting overall market operations under pressure [5][14]. - The first half of 2026 may provide a critical window for inventory digestion due to a slowdown in new production capacity releases, with most of the planned 5.65 million tons of new capacity expected to be released in the second half of the year [6][14]. Inventory Management and Market Strategy - In the short term, the focus should be on inventory transfer progress and the financial turnover pressure within the industry chain, adopting a prudent inventory management strategy. In the medium to long term, attention should be directed towards the demand recovery rhythm in March 2026 and the new production capacity release in the second half of the year [7][15]. - The polypropylene market is expected to remain in a phase of weak low levels, with a focus on waiting for clear recovery signals from the spring peak season before making significant moves [7][15].