博时国开ETF（159650）基金经理吕瑞君：看好明年债市表现，市场波动带来介入机会

Group 1: Domestic Financial Market - The interbank liquidity remained loose last week, with overnight funding prices stable and DR007 weighted slightly rising, while the central bank net withdrew 19.3 billion yuan on that day [1] - This week, the funding environment continued to be loose, with the 7-day funding price declining, and the central bank net injected 128.6 billion yuan on Monday [1] - On Wednesday, as the tax period impact faded, the funding environment further loosened, with the central bank net withdrawing 143 billion yuan [1] - The central bank restarted 14-day reverse repos on Thursday to release liquidity, maintaining a stable and loose funding environment, with a net injection of 69.7 billion yuan [1] - As of December 18, compared to the previous Friday, DR001 remained flat at 1.28%, while DR007 decreased by 3 basis points to 1.44% [1] Group 2: Economic Data and Outlook - November economic data was generally below expectations, with significant declines in consumption and investment, particularly in real estate investment, indicating persistent issues with insufficient domestic demand [3] - The real estate market continued to bottom out in November, with sales and new starts remaining sluggish; fiscal support for the economy was limited, and durable goods consumption showed a notable decline [3] - The recent meetings emphasized that next year's monetary policy will increase focus on economic growth and price recovery, with a positive outlook for the bond market in the coming year [3] - The fluctuations in the bond market due to institutional behavior have created good entry opportunities, and investors are encouraged to actively consider allocation opportunities from year-end to the first quarter of next year [3] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The National Development Bank ETF (159650) targets interbank market national development bonds, which have high credit ratings, large volumes, and good liquidity, making them worthy investment targets [3][16] - The product characteristics of the National Development Bank ETF (159650) include good liquidity, low credit risk, and lower volatility, offering a reasonable risk-return ratio and flexible trading options for short-duration allocations [16]