宏观与基本面共塑格局：有色市场步入“分化新常态” ！铜铝锡镍铅大涨，锌价“逆行”承压

Group 1: Market Overview - The non-ferrous metal market is experiencing a complex pattern of "variety differentiation and different logics" driven by macro policy expectations and fundamental supply-demand contradictions [1] - Copper and tin are supported by rigid supply constraints and emerging demand, while aluminum and zinc maintain a strong performance due to low inventory and weak supply [1] - Lead and nickel are fluctuating amid a "reality versus expectation" battle [1] Group 2: Copper Analysis - Core drivers for copper include macro liquidity easing expectations and rigid supply constraints of copper concentrate [2] - The U.S. November CPI rose 3.1% year-on-year, lower than expected, reinforcing the Fed's expectation of multiple rate cuts in 2026, which weakens the dollar and boosts the attractiveness of non-ferrous metals priced in dollars [2] - Supply constraints are evident with low LME registered warehouse stocks and domestic social inventory, indicating ongoing supply tightness [2][3] Group 3: Aluminum Analysis - Aluminum is supported by rigid supply constraints and low inventory levels [4] - Domestic production capacity has decreased due to environmental restrictions, while inventory remains at historical lows, providing price support [5] - Demand is stable but not strong, with improvements in real estate completions and increased demand for photovoltaic supports [5] Group 4: Zinc Analysis - Zinc is experiencing a strong performance due to expectations of tight supply and production cuts [6] - The processing fee for zinc concentrate has dropped significantly, indicating a supply tightness that is being transmitted to the smelting sector [7] - Social inventory of zinc has decreased, supporting the current price levels [7][8] Group 5: Lead Analysis - Lead is facing a "raw material shortage" due to a sharp decline in the operating rate of recycled lead and extremely low social inventory [9] - The cost of raw materials has increased, leading to a vicious cycle of reduced production [10] - Demand remains stable, particularly from automotive battery production, but overall demand is primarily driven by essential purchases [10] Group 6: Tin Analysis - Tin is characterized by resource scarcity and emerging demand, with long-term price expectations moving upward [11] - The global tin ore grade is declining, and new production capacity is slow to come online, highlighting the resource scarcity [11] - Emerging fields such as AI and photovoltaic applications are driving significant increases in tin demand [11] Group 7: Nickel Analysis - Nickel's market is influenced by Indonesia's policy to cut production targets and high inventory levels [12] - The proposed reduction in Indonesia's nickel ore production aims to alleviate excess supply pressures, which is expected to raise nickel ore prices [12] - Demand for nickel in new energy applications is increasing, but traditional demand from stainless steel is weakening [13] Group 8: Market Outlook - Short-term differentiation in metal performance is expected, with strong varieties like copper, tin, and zinc, while aluminum and lead show strength due to low inventory [14] - Long-term trends will be driven by electrification and resource scarcity, with significant demand growth anticipated in sectors like renewable energy and AI [15][16] - Investors should focus on supply variables such as Indonesian nickel policies and demand variables like domestic growth policies and global AI capital expenditures [16]