南向资金周度净流入转正！华泰证券：港股一季度胜率更高

Group 1 - Since late November, net inflows of southbound funds have continued to shrink, with a net outflow observed in the second week of December. CICC suggests that the new public fund regulations may have led to a reallocation or outflow of funds, but this factor is expected to have only a short-term impact and should not be extrapolated indefinitely [1] - Looking ahead, CICC notes that the Hong Kong stock market is more sensitive to liquidity compared to A-shares and is structurally more responsive to fundamentals. The true support for the Hong Kong market and valuation elasticity comes from technology (especially AI) and consumption. The technology sector in Hong Kong is more focused on applications and internet platforms, particularly in the "application layer" of AI rather than the "hardware layer," where current hardware has higher short-term certainty. The consumption sector mainly consists of discretionary and new consumption, which currently shows weak sentiment and lacks catalysts [2] - Huatai Securities indicates that the current market is still in a left-side layout phase, with the right-side turning point not yet clear. There is a strong consensus expectation for an early spring rally, but the Hong Kong market still faces supply and demand pressures at year-end, leading to uncertainty regarding the "Christmas rally." The first quarter may present a higher probability phase for gains [2] Group 2 - For the first quarter's market layout in Hong Kong, several ETFs are highlighted: the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180.SH), which tracks the largest technology index; the Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330.SH), focusing on internet giants and having the highest number of holders among Hong Kong ETFs; and the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159101.SZ), which covers a wide range of Hong Kong technology sub-sectors, including AI applications, innovative pharmaceuticals, robotics, and smart vehicles [3] - From December 15 to December 19, the Hong Kong market experienced a rebound after an initial decline, with the Hang Seng Technology Index showing a weekly decline of 2.82%. Southbound funds returned to net inflows, totaling 16.2 billion yuan, reversing the previous week's net outflow trend [4]