重新审视日本农产品，千亿日元损失刺破高贵神话

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has officially suspended all imports of Japanese seafood, leading to significant economic losses for Japan's seafood industry, which heavily relies on exports to China [1][2][3]. Group 1: Impact on Japanese Seafood Exports - Japan's seafood exports are projected to decline by 7.5% in 2024, with total exports estimated at 360.9 billion yen, down from 390 billion yen in 2023 [3][4]. - Exports of agricultural and forestry products to mainland China are expected to drop by 68.9 billion yen, a decrease of approximately 29%, while exports to Hong Kong will fall by 15.5 billion yen, a decline of 6.6% [4][5]. - Sea cucumbers are identified as the most affected product, with exports expected to decrease by 6.4 billion yen, a drop of 38% [4][5]. Group 2: China's Seafood Industry Growth - China's seafood production is projected to reach 73.66 million tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5%, with expectations to increase to 74.42 million tons in 2025 [6][7]. - The market for domestic seafood stocks has seen a positive response, with companies like Zhongshui Fisheries and Zhuangzi Island experiencing short-term stock price increases due to expectations of filling the gap left by Japanese imports [6][7]. - Technological advancements and model upgrades in the industry are driving growth, with companies like Guolian Fisheries and Zhuangzi Island diversifying their product offerings and improving operational efficiency [8][9]. Group 3: Import Dynamics and Market Trends - Despite the ability to self-supply, China continues to import seafood to meet diverse consumer demands, particularly for high-end seafood products [10][11]. - In the first half of 2025, China's primary seafood imports are expected to reach $9.14 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, with Norway and Russia becoming significant suppliers [12][13]. - The international seafood trade is closely linked to geopolitical relations, with trade from Canada and the U.S. declining due to the current international trade environment, while countries like Ecuador benefit from free trade agreements [12][13].