【财经分析】墨西哥央行年内收官降息 2026年政策空间面临多重约束

Group 1 - The Bank of Mexico announced a 25 basis point reduction in the benchmark interest rate to 7%, marking the lowest level since mid-2022 and completing the last monetary policy adjustment for 2025 [1][2] - This is the eighth rate cut of the year, with the rate now at its lowest since April 2022, following four previous cuts of 50 basis points each [2] - Despite the rate cut, the central bank raised its short-term inflation expectations, with the overall inflation rate rising to 3.8% in November from 3.57% in October, and core inflation increasing from 4.28% to 4.43% [2] Group 2 - The central bank's statement indicates a shift in policy stance from a dovish to a more cautious approach, as it will now "assess the timing of further adjustments" rather than simply considering continued rate cuts [3] - Analysts expect the central bank to maintain interest rates in the first quarter of 2026, with a potential "prudent policy pause" to evaluate the impacts of tax adjustments and minimum wage increases on inflation [3][4] Group 3 - The Mexican peso has become a standout currency in the foreign exchange market, benefiting from high interest rate differentials and robust macroeconomic fundamentals, despite the global trend of rate cuts [5][6] - The peso's strength is attributed to a structural weakening of the dollar and market anticipation of the central bank's decisions, with the dollar-peso exchange rate declining [5][6] - The peso's status as a "star currency" provides a buffer against imported inflation but also constrains monetary easing, necessitating careful policy decisions by the central bank [6]