金价再创新高，永赢基金刘庭宇：降息周期下黄金及黄金股或开启新一轮主升浪

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in spot gold prices to historical highs is driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which opens up medium-term upward potential for the gold sector [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Actions - The U.S. unemployment rate rose unexpectedly in November, while non-farm employment exceeded expectations, indicating a slowdown in economic growth, which supports further easing by the Federal Reserve [1] - Citigroup has raised its forecast for interest rate cuts in 2026 to three times, influenced by the White House's pressure due to rising debt interest payments and a dovish stance among most candidates for the Federal Reserve chair [1] - Historical data shows that during periods of interest rate cuts, gold, as a non-yielding asset, tends to appreciate significantly due to reduced opportunity costs [1] Group 2: Long-term Demand for Gold - The weakening independence of the Federal Reserve and the global trend of de-dollarization enhance the long-term investment value of gold [2] - The probability of stagflation in the U.S. is high, and major European economies are also facing fiscal deterioration and stagflation risks, making gold more attractive compared to other asset classes [2] - Emerging market central banks are increasing their gold reserves, which are currently below the global average, indicating strong demand for gold [2] Group 3: Performance of Gold Stocks - Gold stocks are experiencing high growth, with the top ten constituents of the CSI Gold Index showing a 62% growth rate in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by rising gold prices and increased production [3] - As of November 30, 2025, major gold mining companies have an average PE ratio of 11-15 times based on a gold price of $3,800 per ounce, indicating significant room for valuation recovery compared to the historical average of 20 times [3] - The influx of absolute return-oriented funds into gold and gold stocks is expected to provide stable support for the sector, reducing volatility and enhancing attractiveness [3] - The gold stock sector is currently in a phase of "macro policy benefits + long-term demand + strong fundamentals," suggesting a potential for continued performance improvement [3]