机构：国际原油弱势 2025年最后一轮成品油零售价格调整或下调收尾

Core Viewpoint - The current round of retail fuel price adjustments in China is expected to initiate a downward trend due to a sustained negative change rate in international crude oil prices, primarily influenced by geopolitical factors and market supply concerns [1][2]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - The retail price of gasoline and diesel is projected to decrease by 170 yuan and 165 yuan per ton, respectively, translating to a reduction of 0.13 yuan, 0.14 yuan, and 0.14 yuan per liter for 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel [1]. - The expected price adjustment window will open on December 22, 2025, marking the end of the current round of retail fuel price adjustments [2]. Group 2: Impact on Consumers and Industry - After the price reduction, filling a 50L tank of 92 gasoline will save private car owners approximately 6.5 yuan [2]. - For the logistics industry, a heavy truck running 10,000 kilometers per month with a fuel consumption of 38L per 100 kilometers will see a decrease in fuel costs of around 266 yuan per vehicle before the next price adjustment window [2]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Since the beginning of 2025, there have been 25 rounds of retail fuel price adjustments, with 7 increases, 12 decreases, and 6 instances of no change, resulting in a cumulative reduction of 915 yuan per ton for gasoline and 880 yuan per ton for diesel [2]. - The market will continue to monitor the progress of the Russia-Ukraine negotiations and developments in Venezuela, which may influence future crude oil prices and adjustments [2].