华源证券：小游戏向精品化转型 建议把握生态的成熟放量

Core Insights - The mini-game market in China is transitioning from casual to mid-core and premium games, with total revenue expected to reach 39.836 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 99.18% [1] - The market is projected to exceed 60 billion yuan in total revenue by 2025, indicating significant growth potential [1] Group 1: Market Growth and Trends - The mini-game market has evolved significantly over the past decade, starting with "Flappy Bird" and now seeing a rise in high-quality mini-games due to enhanced commercialization efforts [1] - WeChat mini-games have become the most time-consuming application type, with 5.55 billion monthly active users in October 2024, reflecting a 5.9% year-on-year growth [2] - The revenue model for WeChat mini-games is becoming more flexible and lucrative, with potential earnings increasing by 50% to over 100% due to various incentive policies [2] Group 2: Development and User Engagement - The trend towards mid-core games is expected to enhance user retention and average revenue per user (ARPU), combining light gameplay to attract users with deeper content to keep them engaged [3] - The mixed monetization model is gaining traction, with over 100% growth in mixed monetization game products and advertising consumption in 2023, continuing into 2024 [3] - Mini-games are increasingly being developed for international markets, focusing on low-cost, short-cycle games, with platforms like YouTube and TikTok expanding their mini-game offerings [3]