宏观策略 | 破局谋新，迈向新平衡——2026年度宏观策略展望（基本面篇）

Group 1: Macroeconomic Trends Impacting China's Economy in 2026 - The external environment is expected to stabilize from high volatility, with trade policy uncertainty likely past its peak and geopolitical relations moving towards orderly confrontation [1][11][12] - The growth momentum is anticipated to experience a historic shift, with the "three new economies" (new industries, new business formats, new models) expected to surpass the real estate economy in GDP contribution for the first time [1][23][24] - Inflation is projected to rise moderately from around -1% to near 0%, supported by consumption stimulus and low base effects [1][33][36] - The financial cycle is expected to continue its downward trend, with significant risk prevention tasks remaining [1][38][39] Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - The global economy is forecasted to enter a "persistent low growth" phase in 2026, with inflation risks still present despite a moderate decline [2][51][52] - Domestic nominal GDP is expected to grow around 5%, with real GDP growth also projected at approximately 5% [3][40] - Consumption is anticipated to lead the recovery, with retail sales expected to grow by about 4.5% [3][40] - Investment is expected to stabilize, with infrastructure investment projected to grow moderately due to policy support [3][40] - Exports are expected to grow between 3-5%, facing both opportunities and challenges [4][40] Group 3: Policy Outlook - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a stable overall tone, with a focus on optimizing structure and reform measures [5][6] - Monetary policy may see slight reductions in interest rates and reserve requirements, with a focus on fiscal coordination [6][39] Group 4: Asset Allocation Outlook - The market is expected to be in a complex transition period, with a defensive strategy recommended [7][10] - The stock market is likely to shift from valuation-driven to profit-driven, with a focus on technology, high-quality overseas expansion, and sectors benefiting from anti-involution policies [7][10] - The bond market is expected to experience wide fluctuations, while commodity markets will continue to show structural differentiation [7][10]