【财经分析】2026年尿素市场展望：供需宽松格局难改 迎反转需借“反内卷”东风

Core Viewpoint - The domestic urea market is experiencing a weak trend due to supply growth significantly outpacing demand growth, leading to low prices and high inventory levels [2][3][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Urea prices in the domestic market are expected to decline in 2025, with a "V" shaped trend observed, peaking at 1931 CNY/ton in the first half and dropping to a five-year low of 1577 CNY/ton in the second half [3]. - The average price of domestic urea as of December 18 is 1712.58 CNY/ton, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 5.88% [3]. - The supply growth rate is projected to exceed demand growth, with urea production capacity expected to reach 80.8 million tons in 2025, a 4.65% increase from 2024 [3][4]. Inventory Levels - Urea production companies' inventory levels have increased, with a total of 979,000 tons reported as of December 18, marking a 0.72% increase from the previous period [4]. - The average annual inventory level is expected to rise to 1.11 million tons, a 76% increase compared to 2024 [4]. Future Production and Consumption - Urea production is forecasted to reach approximately 71.71 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.88%, while consumption is expected to grow by 9.06% to 62.2 million tons [4][6]. - Agricultural consumption is anticipated to be the main driver for urea demand, supported by increased planting areas and agricultural projects [6]. Price Trends and Market Outlook - The urea market is expected to remain in a low-price range in early 2026, with prices projected to fluctuate around 1650 ± 200 CNY/ton [7]. - Initial price suppression is expected at the beginning of 2026, followed by a potential rebound due to downstream purchasing activities for spring farming [7]. Policy Impact and Export Dynamics - Recent policies aimed at stabilizing supply and prices have shown positive effects, with urea exports increasing significantly, reaching 4.62 million tons in the first 11 months of the year, a year-on-year increase of 1687.3% [8][9]. - The 2026 urea export quota is set at 3.3 million tons, but exports are crucial for alleviating domestic supply pressure, with estimates suggesting a potential increase to 5-6 million tons under conservative scenarios [9].