中加基金固收周报|市场继续以科技为核心震荡

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance last week with a slight increase in trading volume [1][10][25] Macroeconomic Data Analysis - The December Politburo and Central Economic Work Conferences emphasized the importance of domestic demand, maintaining a conservative policy tone [5][20] - Domestic economic conditions are viewed positively, while international challenges remain [5][20] - The focus on expanding domestic demand has increased, with previous aggressive macro policy language being replaced by a more cautious approach [5][20] - The policy direction emphasizes balancing development and security, with a call for rational and structured future policies [5][20] - Fiscal policy remains proactive while monetary policy is moderately accommodative [5][20] Export Performance - November exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year and 8.2% month-on-month, exceeding market expectations [7][22] - Exports to Europe rose by 14.8%, while exports to the U.S. saw a year-on-year decline of 28.6% [7][22] - Exports to Africa and ASEAN grew by 27.6% and 8.2%, respectively, indicating improved trade relations [7][22] - Key export categories showing growth include automobiles and integrated circuits, while home appliances and textiles experienced negative growth [7][22] Stock Market Strategy Outlook - The market experienced a rebound last week, with improved financing data and increased trading volume [10][25] - Short-term expectations indicate a continued focus on technology sectors, driven by ongoing catalysts despite skepticism in the U.S. market regarding AI [11][26] - Mid-term views favor technology growth as a priority, with the current economic fundamentals remaining stable [11][26] - Long-term perspectives highlight the established framework of U.S.-China competition, with potential strategic opportunities for China amid uncertainties in the U.S. economy [12][27] Industry Perspectives - Defensive dividend sectors are recommended for maintaining allocation, with increased insurance capital entering the market [14][28] - Focus on technology sectors remains strong, particularly in AI and related fields, despite ongoing skepticism in the U.S. market [15][29] - Opportunities in domestic demand and high-growth sectors are noted, with a need for strong catalysts to initiate market movements [15][29]