油价或下调，就在今晚

Core Viewpoint - The domestic refined oil retail price is expected to decrease significantly, with a likely reduction exceeding 50 yuan per ton, as the adjustment window opens on December 22 at 24:00 [2][3]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - The current pricing cycle for domestic refined oil has shown a negative trend, with the reference crude oil price change rate at -3.96% as of December 19, leading to anticipated reductions of 170 yuan per ton for gasoline and 165 yuan per ton for diesel [3]. - This adjustment will mark the twelfth price decrease since 2025, with a total of 24 adjustment windows recorded, resulting in a cumulative drop of 745 yuan per ton for gasoline and 715 yuan per ton for diesel compared to the end of last year [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The wholesale market for refined oil is experiencing a divergence, with gasoline prices increasing slightly by 0.56% to 7363 yuan per ton, while diesel prices have decreased by 2.41% to 6367 yuan per ton [7]. - Analysts indicate that the overall demand for gasoline and diesel remains weak, influenced by recent declines in international crude oil prices, although gasoline prices are supported by higher external procurement costs and seasonal demand due to the upcoming New Year holiday [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Geopolitical instability is expected to introduce potential supply risks to the crude oil market, while OPEC+ plans to halt production increases starting January, which may bolster supply-side support [7]. - The upcoming holiday season in Europe and North America is anticipated to increase oil demand, further supported by cold weather, suggesting that international crude oil prices may find strong support in the short term [7].