长安期货张晨：海外供应收缩 甲醇上行支撑增强

Core Viewpoint - The methanol market is experiencing a mixed trend with high domestic supply and weak demand, influenced by overseas supply disruptions, particularly from Iran, which is expected to impact future pricing dynamics [4][22][47] Supply Side - Domestic methanol supply remains high, with a cumulative production of 92.8 million tons from January to November, a year-on-year increase of 9.1% [8][33] - The production capacity utilization rate for domestic methanol plants was 90.52% as of December 19, up 0.81 percentage points week-on-week and 5.1 percentage points year-on-year [8][33] - The overseas methanol production capacity utilization rate was 60.51%, down 3.47 percentage points week-on-week, with a production of 882,700 tons, reflecting a decrease in supply due to operational disruptions in Iran [10][35] Demand Side - The market is entering a consumption off-season, with downstream purchasing being cautious, particularly in the MTO sector where production utilization is at 89.51% [13][38] - The demand for methanol in traditional downstream applications like formaldehyde and acetic acid remains weak, with limited growth in consumption [15][40] Inventory - Port inventory levels remain high, with a total social inventory of 1.61 million tons as of December 19, an increase of 22,800 tons week-on-week [17][42] - The port inventory specifically was 1.2188 million tons, down 15,600 tons week-on-week, but still up 148,500 tons year-on-year [17][42] Cost Side - Coal prices have been declining, which has reduced losses for coal-based methanol production facilities, with a drop of 41 yuan per ton for 5500 kcal thermal coal last week [20][45] - The overall coal market remains weak, with limited demand growth expected due to regulatory pressures and seasonal factors [20][45] Summary - The methanol market is at a critical juncture, with high supply and weak demand limiting immediate price increases, while expectations of reduced imports from Iran provide some support for future pricing [22][47]