Market Review - The equity market experienced fluctuations last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.02%, while the Shenzhen Index fell by 0.9%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.3%, the ChiNext Index dropped by 2.3%, and the STAR Market 50 declined by 3% [1] - The bond market saw an increase, with the 10-year government bond yield settling around 1.83%, down approximately 1.8 basis points, the 7-year yield down about 3 basis points, the 1-year yield down around 3.3 basis points, and the 3-year corporate bond yield down about 4.6 basis points [1] Industry Performance - In the Shenwan first-level industry classification, the top-performing sectors included retail trade, non-bank financials, beauty care, and social services, while the sectors with the largest declines were electronics, power equipment, and machinery [2][3] Economic Events - In November, China's industrial value-added growth year-on-year decreased from 4.9% in October to 4.8%, while the retail sales of consumer goods fell from 2.9% to 1.3%, and fixed asset investment recorded a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6% [4][14] - The automotive manufacturing sector saw a decline in growth from 16.8% in October to 11.9% in November, with the overall industrial value-added contribution remaining at 1.2 percentage points [4] - Retail sales in sectors related to subsidies, such as automobiles, home appliances, and furniture, saw year-on-year declines, with automotive sales dropping from -6.6% to -8.3%, home appliances from -14.6% to -19.4%, and furniture from 9.6% to -3.8% [15] - The real estate sector showed weakness, with new home transaction values declining year-on-year from 24.3% in October to 25.1% in November, and real estate investment also saw a widening decline from 23% to 30.3% [5][15] Fiscal Data - In November, the broad fiscal revenue decreased by 5.2% year-on-year, compared to a decline of 0.6% in October, while fiscal expenditure fell by 1.7% year-on-year, a significant improvement from a 19.1% decline in October [6][14] - Tax revenue showed a notable recovery, with total tax and fee revenue exceeding 29 trillion yuan from January to November, and tax revenue (excluding export tax rebates) surpassing 16 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.1% [16][17] Market Outlook - The equity strategy suggests continuing to focus on sectors with valuation advantages, as the A-share market is currently in a phase of consolidation, with traditional indices showing stability while tech stocks have faced corrections [19] - The bond market is expected to continue its volatility, with short-term bonds outperforming long-term ones, and the overall demand for effective economic policies remains crucial [20]
一周观市|光大保德信基金:继续关注进攻板块,看好科技方向
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-22 09:26