华闻期货：C黄金盘整一月终迎突破 地缘风险与ETF资金流入助推

Group 1: Gold Futures Performance - On December 22, the Shanghai gold futures main contract reported at 1000.86 CNY per gram, with an increase of 2.10%, opening at 979.90 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 1000.86 CNY and a low of 978.32 CNY [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic News - New York Fed President Williams stated that there is no urgent need for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, as previous cuts have positioned the policy favorably. The November CPI report was distorted due to government shutdown, but core inflation is steadily approaching the 2% target, and the labor market is adjusting smoothly [1] - Market expectations indicate a low probability of interest rate cuts in the first half of next year, with a 50% chance of a cut in June [1] - Geopolitical conflicts have escalated, with the U.S. strengthening its blockade on Venezuela and potentially declaring war, which has boosted safe-haven sentiment and contributed to rising precious metal prices [1] - According to Bloomberg data, gold ETFs have recorded inflows for five consecutive weeks, and the World Gold Council reports that total holdings of these funds have increased every month this year except for May [1] Group 3: Institutional Views - After nearly a month of consolidation, gold has finally broken upward, reaching a new historical high, with both gold and silver entering a dual upward cycle. This upward trend is expected to continue, but short-term volatility may increase, necessitating risk control [1]