2026年全球股市狂欢继续？小心这些“暗流”

Core Viewpoint - The global stock market is expected to perform strongly in 2025, leading to bullish sentiment among investors entering 2026, despite underlying economic challenges and high valuation levels [1][2]. Market Sentiment and Valuation - The stock allocation ratio is rising, with fund managers holding cash at historical lows, driven by expectations of continued market growth [1]. - The forward valuation ratio of the S&P 500 has reached historical peaks, often preceding significant market corrections [1]. - High valuations are seen as a potential obstacle for market growth, but not insurmountable, requiring strong corporate fundamentals to support current stock prices [2]. Economic Outlook and Earnings Pressure - Optimism about economic growth is facing challenges, particularly with recent weaknesses in the U.S. job market and persistent inflation [1]. - Companies must meet high earnings expectations to maintain positive market sentiment, with global earnings anticipated to grow by double digits, particularly in emerging markets [6]. Sector Rotation and Investment Opportunities - Recent adjustments in the AI and semiconductor sectors have led to the emergence of more attractive investment opportunities in other areas, prompting investors to rebalance their portfolios [9]. - The rotation phenomenon is occurring in both U.S. and European markets, with funds shifting towards cyclical sectors and defensive assets [9]. Seasonal Market Trends - Historical data suggests that the beginning of the year typically sees a seasonal rise in market risk appetite, although January and February may not always be strong months for market performance [11]. Stock Selection Environment - The concentration of market returns in large tech stocks has created a favorable environment for stock-picking investors, with lower correlations among index constituents [13]. - Active management is expected to outperform benchmarks as the benefits of AI spread across sectors [13]. Crowded Positioning and Risks - Current market positioning is relatively crowded, with high expectations for economic growth and asset performance, leading to a significant drop in cash levels among investors [15]. - The greatest downside risk is seen in the potential deterioration of the U.S. job market, which could reignite recession fears [15].