今晚过后成品油价迎“三连跌”，机构预计下一轮上调概率大

Core Viewpoint - Domestic refined oil prices are experiencing a "three consecutive declines," with significant reductions in gasoline and diesel prices, leading to decreased costs for private car owners and logistics companies [2][3]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - Starting from December 22, domestic gasoline prices will be reduced by 170 yuan per ton, and diesel prices will be reduced by 165 yuan per ton, translating to a decrease of 0.13 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline and 0.14 yuan per liter for both 95-octane gasoline and 0 diesel [2]. - For a typical private car with a 50L fuel tank, filling up will cost approximately 6.5 yuan less after the price adjustment [2]. - For logistics vehicles carrying 50 tons, the fuel cost per 100 kilometers will decrease by about 5.6 yuan [2]. Group 2: Market Analysis - The recent price adjustments are attributed to a downward trend in international crude oil prices, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting supply risks [2][4]. - Analysts indicate that concerns over long-term supply surplus have countered the upward pressure from geopolitical instability, resulting in a net decline in international oil prices during the adjustment period [2]. - The year 2025 has seen a total of 25 rounds of retail price adjustments, with 7 increases, 12 decreases, and 6 instances of no change, leading to a cumulative reduction of 915 yuan per ton for gasoline and 880 yuan per ton for diesel [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The next price adjustment window is set to open on January 6, 2026, with a higher probability of price increases anticipated due to geopolitical instability and seasonal demand factors [4]. - Analysts predict that the suspension of production increases by OPEC+ starting in January will provide additional support to oil prices [4].