长江有色：22日镍价上涨 产业链边际改善现货刚需补库

Core Viewpoint - The nickel market is experiencing upward momentum driven by both domestic and international factors, with expectations of supply tightening and improving demand in certain sectors [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai nickel futures market saw significant gains, with the main contract closing at 121,260 CNY/ton, up 5,280 CNY/ton, a rise of 4.55% [1]. - The average price of nickel on December 22 was reported at 121,950 CNY/ton, an increase of 1,500 CNY from the previous day [1]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Indonesia plans to significantly reduce its nickel ore production target by 34% for 2026, which is expected to tighten future supply and increase costs [2]. - Global refined nickel inventories are at a historical high of 254,000 tons, indicating that the current supply situation remains loose despite future tightening expectations [2]. Group 3: Demand Trends - Demand for nickel is showing structural differentiation, with stainless steel demand improving due to increased procurement in appliances and high-end steel, while demand from the new energy battery sector remains weak [3]. - The core contradiction in the nickel industry lies between the tightening supply expectations from Indonesia and the current high inventory levels and weak downstream demand [3]. Group 4: Company Performance - Leading companies like Huayou Cobalt have demonstrated resilience through resource self-sufficiency and long-term contracts with downstream giants, achieving high growth [4]. - Companies such as Jinchuan Group maintain stable performance due to consistent output and understanding of long-term demand in the new energy sector [4]. - There is a clear performance differentiation among companies, with integrated firms that control upstream resources and sales channels becoming dominant in the reshaping industry landscape [4]. Group 5: Price Forecast - The combination of macroeconomic easing, supply tightening expectations, and marginal improvements in the industry chain suggests that nickel prices may rebound in the short term [5].