长江有色：22日铅价上涨 年末交投清淡刚需为主

Group 1: Market Overview - Today's Shanghai lead futures saw a slight increase, with the main contract opening at 16,970 yuan, reaching a high of 17,030 yuan and a low of 16,890 yuan, closing at 16,920 yuan, up 70 yuan or 0.42% [1] - The latest LME lead price reported at 1,978.5 USD, down 6 USD [1] - The average price for ccmn Longjiang comprehensive 1 lead was reported at 17,025 yuan, an increase of 75 yuan compared to the previous day [1] Group 2: Macro Analysis - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has led to a weaker dollar, providing liquidity support for dollar-denominated commodities like lead [2] - LME inventory continues to decrease, with a weekly reduction of 3,500 tons, reinforcing bullish sentiment and expectations of tight supply in the global market [2] - Domestic macro sentiment is improving, but the impact on lead demand is undergoing structural changes, with traditional infrastructure support weakening due to capital flow towards debt reduction [2] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The lead market is characterized by "internal tightness and external shortage," with supply facing rigid gaps due to raw material shortages and environmental production limits affecting domestic recycled lead [3] - While primary lead production is recovering, delivery brand output is tightening due to maintenance, and LME inventory outflows are exacerbating global supply tightness [3] - Demand shows structural weakness, with core support from seasonal replacement demand for automotive starter batteries, but electric bicycle battery demand is weak due to new standards and export barriers [3] Group 4: Spot Market and Price Forecast - The current lead spot market is in a weak balance supported by low inventory, with traders reluctant to sell, leading to increased spot premiums [4] - Short-term price trends are expected to show strong fluctuations, with lead prices likely to continue high-level oscillations in the near term [4]