张津镭:黄金创历史新高后情绪过热 4400关口下方看空

Core Viewpoint - The gold price has shown a significant annual increase of 65%, maintaining its strong position as a core precious metal, despite silver's remarkable 132% annual rise and reaching a historical high of $67.45 [1][5]. Market Analysis - The gold market experienced a historic moment on December 22, with prices breaking through the key resistance level of $4,381 per ounce, currently trading around $4,380, reflecting a daily increase of over 1% [1][5]. - Market sentiment has shifted to extreme excitement, with technical indicators showing severe overbought conditions, indicating a "overheated area" where both opportunities and risks coexist [1][5]. - The recent comments from potential Federal Reserve chair candidate Hassett, suggesting there is still ample room for interest rate cuts, have acted as a catalyst for the market [1][5]. - Concerns over military conflicts and energy supply disruptions, exacerbated by Trump's statements and U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers, have heightened safe-haven buying [1][5]. Technical Analysis - The 5-day moving average around $4,340 remains a critical support level for short-term trading, with the market currently influenced by extreme emotional factors [2][6]. - If the bullish sentiment continues, the price may target the $4,400 level, but caution is advised due to the lack of substantial fundamental news [2][6]. - The market's transition from optimism to euphoria, along with significant deviations from short-term moving averages and potential volatility in silver, suggests a need for a healthy correction or consolidation to digest recent gains [7]. Trading Recommendations - Suggested trading strategy includes short positions in gold at the $4,385-$4,390 range, with a stop loss at $4,400 and targets set at $4,350, $4,320, and $4,300 [3][8]. - If the price breaks above the $4,400 level, a long position may be considered on a pullback, targeting $4,420 and $4,430 [3][8].