Group 1 - The polyethylene market is experiencing a significant supply-demand imbalance, with prices nearing the extreme lows seen at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 [1] - As of December 19, 2025, the LLDPE price index is at 6470, LDPE at 8271, and HDPE at 7057, indicating a severe downturn in market sentiment [1] - The current price decline is attributed to profound changes in industry structure and macroeconomic logic, rather than a simple historical repetition [1] Group 2 - Domestic polyethylene capacity expansion accelerated post-2020, with an annual growth rate exceeding 18% from 2020 to 2021, followed by a slowdown in 2022-2023 [3] - In 2025, new supply will be driven by projects from foreign giants like ExxonMobil and BASF, as well as large domestic refining and chemical integration projects [3] - The capacity expansion trend is expected to continue into 2026, with a higher expansion rate than in 2025, while the exit of old capacity will take a considerable amount of time [3] Group 3 - The demand for polyethylene froze during the global pandemic in March-April 2020, leading to historical low points due to panic over the unknowns of the virus [4] - The ongoing price decline in 2025 is a result of persistent supply expansion coupled with weak demand growth, creating a long-term contradiction in the market [4] - Expectations for a market rebound are diminishing as the supply-demand dynamics remain unfavorable [4]
聚乙烯价格持续下行 能靠近2020年“铁底”吗？
Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang·2025-12-22 10:14