错失恐惧症与泡沫恐慌交织，预示2026年股市波动加剧

Core Viewpoint - Investors are caught in a dilemma between missing out on the AI boom and fearing a potential bubble burst, leading to expected market volatility in the U.S. stock market in 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Trends and Predictions - The stock market has experienced alternating phases of significant sell-offs and rapid rebounds over the past 18 months, a trend likely to continue into 2026 [1] - Some strategists predict that the AI sector may follow a historical pattern of "boom-bust" cycles seen in previous technological revolutions [1] - The performance of tech companies, which have a disproportionate market influence, is expected to diverge from other components of the S&P 500 in 2025, potentially stabilizing overall market volatility [1] Group 2: Volatility and Trading Strategies - Strategists anticipate that market volatility will be supported in 2026 due to the instability often associated with expanding asset bubbles, with potential for over 10% declines followed by rapid rebounds [2] - UBS strategists suggest that regardless of whether the AI trend continues or collapses, profiting from increased volatility in the Nasdaq 100 index is key, recommending strategies like straddles or OTC swaps [2] - The VIX index is expected to maintain a median range of 16 to 17 in 2026, but could spike significantly during risk-averse market conditions [2] Group 3: Options Pricing and Trading Strategies - The imbalance of investment funds is projected to influence options pricing, potentially steepening the volatility curve [3] - Pair trading strategies, betting on individual stock volatility rising while index volatility narrows, are expected to gain popularity, although some funds are taking contrarian positions due to overcrowding [3][4] - Investors are encouraged to explore various forms of pair trading to extract profits, as the traditional strategy has become widely known and its excess return potential diminished [4] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Risk Management - A model proposed by Societe Generale suggests that a flattening yield curve signals a buy in volatility, while a steepening curve indicates a sell, with the model having successfully avoided major downturns in the past [5] - The current low leverage levels in U.S. corporate sectors may be the beginning of a new leverage cycle driven by AI, which could elevate credit spreads and stock market volatility [5] - Investors are advised to prepare for extreme market conditions in 2026, driven by fears of missing out, conflicting narratives around AI, and uncertainties from U.S. government policies [5]