金丰来:避险需求与降息预期升温

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant rise in international gold prices, reaching a peak of approximately $4,300 per ounce, driven by a weakening dollar and a surge in global risk-averse investments [1][3] - The macroeconomic fundamentals indicate that expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve policy are fueling the surge in gold prices, with recent U.S. inflation data showing unexpected slowdown and a cooling job market, leading to increased calls for monetary policy easing [1][3] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran and escalating U.S.-Venezuela tensions, are creating high uncertainty, prompting institutional investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold [1][3] Group 2 - Economic data shows that the University of Michigan's December consumer confidence index was unexpectedly revised down to 52.9, reflecting concerns about the economic outlook, which in turn strengthens market expectations for a looser monetary environment [2][4] - The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 21.0% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in January, despite hints from the Cleveland Fed President that policy may enter a pause [2][4] - Technical analysis reveals that gold's upward trend remains intact, with prices consistently above the 100-period exponential moving average (EMA), and the Bollinger Bands indicating increased market volatility driven by bullish sentiment [2][4]