研究机构预估台湾2026年经济增速放缓至3.71%

Economic Outlook - Taiwan's GDP growth rate is projected to slow down to 3.71% in 2026 due to high base effects, global trade uncertainties, and structural differentiation within the domestic industry [1] - The export performance of Taiwan is expected to be supported by electronics and information communication products, while traditional industries face challenges from US tariffs, slowing global demand, and competition from the mainland [1] Trade and Export - The growth rate of Taiwan's goods and services exports is expected to drop significantly from 32.09% in 2025 to 8.41% in 2026 [1] Domestic Consumption - Private consumption in Taiwan is recovering slowly, with a projected real growth rate of only 1.35% for the entire year due to uncertainties from US tariff policies and financial market volatility [1] - Despite expected tax adjustments and related subsidies to boost consumption, the growth rate for private consumption is anticipated to rise modestly to 2.13% in 2026, constrained by uneven industrial prosperity and employment concerns [1] Private Investment - The real private investment growth rate for 2025 is estimated at 10.56%, but is expected to decline to 1.81% in 2026 due to high base effects [2] - The real fixed capital formation growth rate is projected to decrease from 10.17% in 2025 to 2.13% in 2026 [2]