RadexMarkets瑞德克斯:比特币四年周期未改 预警2026休整期

Core Viewpoint - The discussion around whether the four-year cycle of Bitcoin is invalidated has intensified, with RadexMarkets observing that Bitcoin's current trajectory closely resembles historical cycles, suggesting a potential adjustment phase following the peak in 2025 [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - Institutions like Bitwise and ARK Invest indicate that Bitcoin has deeply integrated into traditional finance through ETFs, potentially ending the previous cycles of extreme volatility [3]. - RadexMarkets predicts that Bitcoin will reach a peak of $125,000 in October 2025, marking a standard top after 145 weeks of the current bull market cycle, which aligns closely with previous cycles [2][4]. - The historical data from 2012 to 2020 shows a consistent pattern of price behavior following halving events, characterized by a surge in price, followed by a significant correction, and then a buildup before the next cycle [3][4]. Group 2: Future Outlook - RadexMarkets anticipates that the bear market correction phase typically lasts about a year, indicating that 2026 is likely to be a "year of rest" for Bitcoin [2][4]. - In terms of asset allocation and risk management, while the long-term bullish trend remains intact, short-term price support is expected to be found in the range of $65,000 to $75,000 [4]. - Understanding the cyclical "winter" is crucial for traders, as it serves to eliminate market bubbles and build momentum for the next halving event [4].