Mhmarkets迈汇:需求错位与供应紧缺 银价2026年震荡走高

Core Viewpoint - Silver has emerged as a star in the commodity market, recording an astonishing increase of over 120% in price due to strong industrial demand, aggressive investment buying, and tariff policies disrupting supply chains [1][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Analysts expect that the silver market will continue its bullish trend into 2026, but caution against potential profit-taking and consolidation pressures at the beginning of the year [1][5]. - The first half of 2026 may see a correction in precious metal prices due to previous significant gains, leading to market consolidation [1][5]. - High silver prices are beginning to suppress demand in certain sectors, such as photovoltaics, where manufacturers are accelerating research into reduction technologies or seeking cheaper substitute metals [1][5]. Group 2: Supply Constraints - Supply-side tightening remains a core logic supporting silver prices, with a global silver supply gap unlikely to be filled in the short term due to insufficient exploration investment over the past decade [2][6]. - The construction of new large mines typically requires a 5 to 10-year cycle, indicating that structural shortages will persist into 2026 [2][6]. - The demand for silver in electric vehicles (approximately 25-50 grams per vehicle) is significantly higher than in traditional internal combustion engine vehicles, further supporting silver prices [2][6]. Group 3: Market Liquidity and Investor Sentiment - While some institutions suggest that rising LBMA inventories may alleviate "silver squeeze" phenomena, it is noted that the transfer of physical inventory does not equate to a decrease in demand [2][6]. - The uncertainty in the global monetary environment continues to attract significant retail and institutional investment in silver due to its anti-inflation and anti-devaluation properties [2][6]. - Investor preference for silver may exceed expectations, potentially pushing the average price above $60 by the end of 2026 [2][6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis and Future Outlook - Several analysts have set long-term price targets for silver at $75 to $100, but caution that the market is currently in a mature bull phase [3][7]. - Historical commodity cycles suggest that significant price surges are often followed by deep corrections, with warnings that 2026 could mark the end of the current long cycle [3][7]. - The silver market in 2026 is expected to present both opportunities and volatility, with a long-term upward trend remaining intact amid the macro backdrop of clean energy transition [3][7].