Global coal production growth to slow in 2026, amid shifting supply dynamics

Global Coal Production Outlook - Global coal production is expected to remain flat in 2026, with an annual growth of 0.2% to 9,355.8 million tonnes, indicating a slower growth pace compared to 2025 due to structural pressures in major producing regions [1] - The outlook reflects ongoing weakness in China, oversupply in Indonesia and the US, and sustained price softness across the value chain, limiting large-scale production expansion [1] China Coal Production - China's coal output is projected to decline by 0.8% in 2026, marking the first fall since 2016, driven by excess supply, stagnant downstream demand, and high inventory levels [2] - Weaker electricity demand growth and improved renewable generation capacity are expected to reduce coal burn, while elevated stockpiles at power plants and ports will keep production disciplined [2] Indonesia Coal Production - Indonesia's coal production is expected to decline by 3.9% in 2026 due to inventory pressures, softer export demand, and weaker international prices [3] - Persistent oversupply in key Asian markets, particularly China and India, is likely to limit export volumes, while lower benchmark prices reduce margins and discourage output growth [3] US Coal Production - In the US, coal production is forecasted to contract by 5.1% in 2026 as utilities transition away from coal-fired generation [4] - Coal's share in the national power mix, which fell below 20% in 2024, is expected to continue declining due to expanding renewable capacity and cost-competitive natural gas [4]