硅基OLED龙头IPO临考，视涯科技百亿估值背后藏隐忧

Core Viewpoint - The company, Visionary Technology, is set to go public on December 24, 2025, aiming to raise approximately 2.015 billion yuan for expanding its production line of silicon-based OLED micro-displays and building a research and development center. It holds a significant market position in the silicon-based OLED micro-display sector, being ranked second globally and first domestically, with a market share of 35.2% in the XR field, trailing Sony's 50.8% [1][12][13]. Industry and Market Position - The global XR device sales have fluctuated from 37.23 billion yuan in 2021 to an expected 31.89 billion yuan in 2024, raising concerns about the company's ability to absorb increased production capacity amid declining demand [2][14]. - The micro-display market is currently competitive, featuring four main technologies: Fast-LCD, silicon-based OLED, Micro-LED, and LCoS, with major players like Sony, Samsung, and BOE also investing in micro-display technologies [2][15]. - The company acknowledges that while silicon-based OLED technology is gaining traction, it faces significant competition from established players like Sony, which holds a market share of 57.1% in the overall silicon OLED market [4][16]. Production and Technical Challenges - The company faces challenges in achieving high production yield rates, which are critical for the semiconductor display industry. It has reported an average capacity utilization rate of approximately 90% but has not disclosed specific yield data, leading to market skepticism about its production efficiency [6][18]. - The company has indicated that achieving high yield rates is a significant challenge due to the historical dominance of foreign manufacturers in silicon-based OLED technology, necessitating substantial investment and technical support for domestic production [18][20]. Financial Performance - The company's financial performance has been underwhelming, with reported revenues of 190 million yuan, 215 million yuan, and 280 million yuan over the past three years, yielding a compound annual growth rate of only 21.27%, below the required 25% for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [21][22]. - The company has incurred continuous net losses totaling nearly 800 million yuan over the same period, with negative operating cash flows reported [21][22]. - Despite past performance, the company projects significant revenue growth, estimating revenues of 469 million yuan, 2.26 billion yuan, and 3.734 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027, with expectations of turning profitable by 2026 [10][25]. Strategic Partnerships and Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about future growth, attributing this to strategic partnerships with major clients, including ByteDance and a significant unnamed client, which has committed to pre-purchasing millions of display units for 2026 [11][25][26]. - The company has also secured a 566 million yuan performance bond to ensure the procurement of necessary components, indicating a proactive approach to managing production costs [26]. - However, there are concerns regarding the reliability of these partnerships and whether they can sustain the company's projected growth, especially if market conditions change unfavorably [12][26].