年底车市静悄悄 | 棱镜

Group 1 - The Chinese automotive market is experiencing a significant decline in sales, with retail sales of passenger vehicles dropping by 32% year-on-year in early December 2025, totaling 297,000 units [2][28] - The new energy vehicle (NEV) market also saw a decline, with retail sales of 185,000 units, down 17% year-on-year [2][28] - This decline is attributed to the phasing out of the vehicle purchase tax exemption and uncertainty surrounding the "trade-in" subsidy policies [3][29] Group 2 - The current vehicle purchase tax is set at 10%, with a reduced rate of 5% for NEVs, and the exemption cap has been lowered from 30,000 yuan to 15,000 yuan [5][31] - There is a prevailing market sentiment of caution among consumers, with 58.2% of dealers reporting that November sales did not meet expectations due to this cautious attitude [6][33] - The "trade-in" subsidies have been paused in many regions, impacting consumer purchasing behavior [8][34] Group 3 - The anticipated "year-end surge" in sales, typically seen in the fourth quarter, has not materialized this year, leading to a "flat tail" effect instead of the expected "tail effect" [36][44] - The automotive market saw a rare decline in November, with retail sales down 8.1% year-on-year, attributed to high sales figures from the previous year and the suspension of trade-in subsidies [38][39] - The inventory warning index for dealers reached a high of 55.6%, indicating over 3.3 million vehicles in stock, with more than 30% of dealers facing inventory pressure [35][41] Group 4 - Over 20 automotive companies have introduced "purchase tax guarantee" policies, where manufacturers will cover the difference in tax if consumers order vehicles before the end of 2025 but do not receive them until after [41][44] - This policy is expected to affect purchasing behavior, leading consumers to delay purchases, which could suppress immediate demand in the fourth quarter [42][44] - The exit of subsidies is projected to significantly impact the market, with estimates suggesting a potential sales growth slowdown from 8% in 2025 to -2% in 2026 [45][46] Group 5 - The automotive industry is shifting from a "policy-driven" to a "market-driven" and "technology-driven" model, indicating a maturation of the market [46] - The average price of new energy vehicles is expected to decrease from 185,000 yuan in 2023 to 156,000 yuan in 2025, putting pressure on profit margins [52] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles has surpassed 50%, indicating a significant shift in consumer adoption and market dynamics [52]