Operational recovery will drive Australia’s copper production growth in 2026

Group 1 - Australia's copper production is forecast to decline in 2025 to 710 kilotonnes (kt) due to operational disruptions at key mines, including the permanent closure of the Mount Isa mine and ongoing development activities at Cadia and Boddington [1] - The decline in production is further exacerbated by ore depletion at mature mines such as Nova Bollinger, Osborne, and Deflector, which will collectively impact the country's copper output [1] Group 2 - In 2026, copper output is projected to recover as major mines return to steady-state production, with Cadia and Boddington expected to resume regular output following the completion of development and maintenance activities [2] - The recovery will be supported by improving operational efficiency across existing assets, with capital programs implemented during 2024-2025 beginning to deliver productivity gains [2] - Beyond 2026, Australia's copper production outlook remains positive, driven by a robust pipeline of brownfield expansions and greenfield developments, with significant capital commitments from major producers like BHP [2] Group 3 - Overall, Australia's copper production is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 7.3% between 2025 and 2035, reaching 1,432.7 kt by the end of the period [3] - Growth will be supported by the commissioning of projects such as the Nifty open pit, Jervois Copper, Cadia Expansion 2, Elizabeth Creek, and the large-scale Eva Copper project, reinforcing Australia's position as a key global copper supplier amid rising energy-transition-driven demand [3]