韩国陷入汇率保卫战：散户万亿资金涌向海外，国民养老金被迫抛售美元

Core Viewpoint - South Korean authorities are taking aggressive actions to prevent the won from falling to its lowest level since the global financial crisis in early 2009 [1] Group 1: Currency Weakness and Economic Impact - The weakening currency has a dual effect on South Korea, enhancing export competitiveness while increasing the prices of energy and other key imports, disrupting business investment and suppressing consumer demand [1] - The government attributes the currency depreciation to a surge in overseas investments by local residents, with retail investors purchasing a record $43 billion in U.S. assets this year, which is approximately three times the expected annual level for 2024 [4] - The persistent "Korea discount" phenomenon, where the value of top conglomerates and the overall stock market is undervalued due to corporate governance issues, has been highlighted by the central bank governor [4] Group 2: Factors Driving Overseas Investment - Many South Korean investors are shifting funds overseas due to the lackluster returns in the domestic stock market, with older generations particularly wary of over-reliance on domestic investments due to memories of the 1997 Asian financial crisis [5] - High housing prices in South Korea, especially in Seoul, have led young homebuyers to invest in high-risk overseas assets and cryptocurrencies instead of saving for property down payments [5][6] Group 3: Government Measures to Support the Won - The government has issued verbal warnings against "one-sided market fluctuations" but has not succeeded in preventing the won from nearing its lowest point since 2009 [9] - The National Pension Service (NPS), holding about $542 billion in foreign assets, has extended its foreign exchange swap agreement with the Bank of Korea and announced a more flexible currency hedging strategy [9] - Authorities have relaxed foreign exchange market stability rules to ensure dollar liquidity and have expressed concerns over excessive competition among companies providing overseas brokerage services [9] Group 4: Challenges in Implementing Measures - The current round of won depreciation is driven by sustained overseas investments from South Korean residents, making it difficult to reverse this trend [11] - The authorities face a balancing act in trying to support the currency while managing the potential risks associated with increased hedging by the NPS, which could lead to a faster rebound of the won than currently anticipated [11]