金价突破前高，观察后续方向

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, with expectations for a potential upward trend in gold prices supported by factors such as the Fed's interest rate policies and global de-dollarization trends [1][7]. Group 1: Economic Data - The U.S. non-farm employment data showed a slight increase of 64,000 jobs in November, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021, indicating a cooling labor market [2]. - The November CPI year-on-year growth was 2.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from September and significantly below the market expectation of 3.1% [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - There is a divergence in the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rate cuts, with some officials indicating no urgency for adjustments, while others see room for further rate cuts [4][5]. - Current real interest rates remain low, suggesting potential for further rate hikes in the future [5]. Group 3: Geopolitical Developments - U.S.-Ukraine talks may have made progress regarding post-war security guarantees, while tensions between Russia and Ukraine continue, with recent drone strikes reported [5]. - The U.S. has implemented a comprehensive blockade on Venezuela, further escalating tensions in the region [6]. Group 4: Gold Market Outlook - The macroeconomic uncertainties and demand for safe-haven assets are expected to support gold prices, with a potential challenge to previous highs in the near term [1][7]. - Long-term factors such as monetary expansion, fiscal deficits, and global geopolitical instability are likely to enhance the demand for gold as a safe asset [7].