Mining in 2025: emerging trends and predictions for 2026

Core Insights - China's dominance in rare earths and critical minerals has highlighted global dependence on its production capacity, particularly for automakers, electronics manufacturers, and energy producers [1] - The trade tensions between the US and China have escalated, resulting in significant tariff increases and expanded export restrictions on critical minerals [2][3] - Countries are actively seeking to diversify their supply chains to reduce reliance on China, with the US leading these efforts [3][6] Group 1: Trade Relations and Geopolitical Tensions - The US-China trade conflict began with tariffs and has escalated to a 145% tariff rate on Chinese goods from the US, with China retaliating with a 125% counter rate [2] - China controls 40% of the world's rare earth reserves and 91% of global separation and refining capabilities, making it a critical player in the supply of essential minerals [3][4] - The mining industry is experiencing shifts due to geopolitical tensions, with countries competing for critical minerals necessary for energy transition [5][6] Group 2: Supply Chain Diversification - Countries are ramping up efforts to secure supply chains for critical minerals, with the US and Australia signing a $1 billion deal to enhance their rare earths market [9] - The US is exploring investment opportunities in Africa, while Australia is looking towards Brazil and Indonesia to diversify its mineral sources [10] - Nations producing critical minerals are becoming more assertive in capturing value, pushing for local processing and increased government participation [10][11] Group 3: Mining Industry Trends - The global mining industry is adapting to geopolitical shifts and increasing demand for critical minerals, with a focus on decarbonization and technological advancements [5][7] - The demand for copper is projected to grow by 2.1% by the end of 2025, despite challenges in production due to operational issues in key regions [12][13] - The mining sector is prioritizing security of supply over cost, leading to diversification into new regions and long-term agreements [11] Group 4: Electrification and Technology in Mining - The mining industry is increasingly adopting battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and autonomous equipment to improve operational efficiency and reduce environmental impact [22][26] - As of March 2025, the number of battery-powered surface trucks has significantly increased, indicating a shift towards electrification in mining operations [23] - The deployment of autonomous mining equipment is expected to grow, particularly in large operations, enhancing productivity and safety [29][30]