明年一季度地方计划发债超万亿，积极财政政策靠前发力

Core Viewpoint - Local governments are planning to issue government bonds early next year to support major project construction, which will lay a solid foundation for economic growth in 2026 and ensure a good start for the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][4] Group 1: Bond Issuance Plans - At least 14 provinces and cities have publicly disclosed plans to issue government bonds in the first quarter of next year, with a cumulative issuance scale nearing 1.2 trillion yuan [1][2] - Jiangsu plans to issue a total of 105.6 billion yuan in government bonds in the first quarter, including 70 billion yuan in new bonds and 35.6 billion yuan in refinancing bonds [2] - Ningbo is set to issue 32.6 billion yuan in new special bonds and 1 billion yuan in new general bonds in early January [5] Group 2: Debt Management and Risk Mitigation - The issuance of new bonds is primarily for project construction, while refinancing bonds are used to repay old debts, alleviating hidden debt risks [6] - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 2 trillion yuan in refinancing bonds in 2026 to replace 2 trillion yuan of existing hidden debts, aiming to ease local government debt pressure [6] - The early issuance of local government debt limits is expected to follow a 60% ratio of the previous year's new debt limit, which for 2025 is set at 5.2 trillion yuan, meaning the 2026 limit cannot exceed 3.12 trillion yuan [3] Group 3: Policy Support and Strategic Focus - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need for a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026 to stabilize investment and support major projects [4] - The Ministry of Finance will continue to guide local governments in accelerating project preparation and optimizing the review mechanism for special bond projects [8] - The pilot program for "self-examination and self-issuance" of special bonds will be expanded, allowing local governments more flexibility in issuing bonds without national review [7][8]