跌势已成定局？专家预警：2026年美元将继续贬值！

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar, after a challenging year, shows signs of stabilization, but many investors anticipate a renewed decline in 2024 due to global economic recovery and further easing of Federal Reserve policies [1][8]. Group 1: Dollar Performance - The dollar has depreciated by 9% against a basket of currencies this year, marking its worst performance in eight years [1][8]. - The dollar's current valuation remains high, with the actual broad effective exchange rate at 108.7 in October, slightly below the historical peak of 115.1 in January [2][9]. Group 2: Global Economic Dynamics - Expectations of a weaker dollar are driven by synchronized global growth, with other major economies gaining momentum, which is expected to diminish the US's growth advantage [3][10]. - Factors such as fiscal stimulus in Germany, policy support in China, and improved growth trajectories in the Eurozone are anticipated to weaken the "US growth premium" that has supported the dollar [3][10]. Group 3: Central Bank Policies - The expectation of the Federal Reserve continuing to lower interest rates while other central banks maintain or raise rates may put additional pressure on the dollar [4][12]. - The Fed's median forecast indicates a potential rate cut of 0.25 percentage points next year, with market expectations leaning towards a more dovish stance under the new chairperson [4][12]. Group 4: Short-term Considerations - Despite a long-term bearish outlook on the dollar, there is a possibility of short-term rebounds due to ongoing enthusiasm for artificial intelligence and capital inflows into the US stock market [5][13]. - The reopening of the US government and tax cuts may provide a temporary boost to the dollar in the first quarter, but this is not expected to drive the dollar's performance throughout the year [6][13].