高盛分析师：中国股票市场到2027年底有望再涨38%

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market is experiencing a strong rebound due to investor reassessment of the technology sector's value and increased household savings flowing into the stock market, with Goldman Sachs predicting continued growth through 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Predictions - Goldman Sachs forecasts that the bull market for Chinese stocks will persist, although the pace of growth may slow down [1]. - The analysts predict a 14% growth in corporate earnings in China next year, followed by a 12% increase in 2027, with valuation expansion expected to be around 10% [1]. - By the end of 2027, Chinese stocks are projected to rise an additional 38% [1]. Group 2: Sector Insights - The growth in overseas revenue for listed companies is expected to contribute to a 1.5% annual increase in earnings for MSCI China index constituents by 2030 [1]. - The valuation of China's AI technology ecosystem has been reassessed, indicating that it remains relatively inexpensive compared to the U.S., given the potential for capital expenditure growth and emphasis on AI commercialization [1][2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The rise of AI-driven Chinese stocks is not seen as a bubble, as there is room for technology companies to enhance their valuations and earnings through a focus on AI applications [2]. - The shift of household savings into the stock market, driven by declining bank deposit rates, has further fueled the current market rally [2]. Group 4: Broader Market Sentiment - Major international banks, including Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, and UBS, have recently expressed bullish views on the Chinese stock market, particularly regarding the technology sector [2]. - JPMorgan's stock strategy head for mainland China and Hong Kong suggests that the current economic and stock market conditions are in a "summer" phase, with a potential "spring sprint" expected in 2026 [3].