Why a Big Storage Draw Failed to Lift Natural Gas Prices

Industry Overview - U.S. natural gas futures have experienced a significant pullback, with prices settling just below $4 per million British thermal units after a more than 3% decline over the week [2][4] - The market remains sensitive to short-term weather changes, with warmer-than-normal temperatures expected to persist into early January, leading to reduced heating demand expectations [2][3] - Despite a large storage withdrawal of 167 billion cubic feet (Bcf), total inventories are still slightly above the five-year average, indicating adequate supply to meet demand [4] Supply and Demand Dynamics - U.S. natural gas production is near record levels, averaging around 110 Bcf per day in December, which has limited price increases despite consistent LNG export demand [5][6] - Traders are not currently concerned about a late-winter storage shortfall, viewing cold-weather price spikes as selling opportunities rather than indicators of a lasting price rally [6] Long-Term Outlook - The long-term outlook for U.S. natural gas appears more balanced, supported by LNG exports, pipeline demand, and global gas markets [7][8] - Short-term volatility is expected to continue, but companies linked to natural gas infrastructure and exports may present investment opportunities for those with a longer horizon [8] Company Focus - Coterra Energy: An independent upstream operator with over 186,000 net acres in the Marcellus Shale, Coterra's natural gas production constitutes more than 60% of its output. The company has an expected earnings per share growth rate of 27.8% over three to five years, compared to the industry's 17.2% [9][10] - EQT Corporation: The leading natural gas producer in the U.S., EQT has over 90% of its production from natural gas. The company has consistently beaten earnings estimates, with a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of approximately 16.7% [11][12] - Excelerate Energy: Focused on LNG infrastructure, Excelerate operates a significant portion of the global Floating Storage Regasification Units (FSRUs) fleet. The company is expanding into LNG-to-power and gas distribution, with a projected 2.4% year-over-year growth in earnings per share for 2025 [13][14]