Recession Risks Rise Without More Rate Cuts, Miran Says

Group 1 - The inevitability of recessions is acknowledged, with the Federal Reserve's role being to mitigate their impact as much as possible [1] - The current rise in the unemployment rate is typically observed before recessions, but there is no immediate recession anticipated due to policy rate adjustments [2] - Various economic shocks, including changes in population growth due to border policy, have led to a decrease in the neutral interest rate, necessitating downward adjustments in policy rates to avoid increasing recession risks [3] Group 2 - The expectation is that interest rates will continue to be adjusted downward in the near future [4]